How does resolving markets work?
Who resolves the market?
Whoever created the market gets to resolve it! Manifold Markets puts trust in its users to resolve their own markets in a timely and accurate manner. We generally will not intervene and resolve a market ourselves outside of exceptional circumstances. We do encourage creators to set clear resolution criteria in advance.
- The creator is free to use their judgment.
- This allows for many new kinds of prediction markets to be created that are less objective. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the Metaverse in 2023?")
- Markets creators who are known to be reputable will earn followers and more activity on their questions.
- Check out the resolution section in the community guidelines.
How should I resolve a market?
Markets should be resolved in a timely fashion once the resolution conditions are met.
If a market closes and there won’t be a resolution in the foreseeable future, consider editing and extending the closing date.
- For Yes/No markets it is generally recommended to resolve fully to one outcome. Only resolve to a particular probability (PROB) if you have a good justification for it.
- Resolving to PROB allows you to choose a specific % if you think the outcome lies between Yes and No.
- When resolving Free response and multiple choice markets, you can resolve fully to one answer, or select multiple and the % of the winnings you want to go towards each type of share.
What does resolving to N/A do?
Resolving a market to N/A effectively cancels the market. We try not to punish creators for resolving to N/A as there are valid scenarios for using it (eg. conditional markets, controversial resolution criteria).
This means that:
- All users who have traded on the market have their Mana returned to them.
- Any user who made a profit by selling shares before resolution will have that mana subtracted from their balance. This could lead to a negative balance in some cases.
- All liquidity providers will have their mana returned to them, including the initial M$100 it cost to make the market.
Don’t abuse resolving to N/A as it inflicts an opportunity cost on bettors.
